ANZ has raised its oil price outlook, citing supply losses from the Middle East. The bank now expects Brent crude to reach $88 per barrel by the end of the year and remain above $90 throughout 2026, up from earlier projections of around $80.
According to ANZ analysts, the revision reflects export disruptions, logistical challenges, and precautionary shutdowns by Gulf producers, which have significantly reduced supply despite limited physical damage to infrastructure in the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
The conflict, which began on February 28, has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a key passage for about one-fifth of global oil shipments. ANZ estimates that around 10 million barrels per day have been removed from the market compared to earlier projections.
Analysts noted that tight supply-demand conditions alone are now enough to keep prices elevated, even without further escalation. While some output may return if conditions improve, recovery is expected to be gradual.
The bank also warned that between 1 to 2 million barrels per day could face long-term disruption due to infrastructure damage and financial constraints.
With global oil inventories already low, ANZ said the market may rely on higher prices to curb demand, potentially keeping volatility high into 2027.
