Nigeria’s Long Wait for a National Census Raises Planning Concerns

Nigeria’s nearly two-decade delay in conducting a new national census continues to raise concerns about the country’s commitment to effective planning and data-driven governance.

The former Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Nasir Kwarra, had earlier revealed during the anniversary of the Nairobi Summit on Population and Development that preparations for a fresh census would soon resume. However, despite several years of preparation and billions of naira spent, the exercise was never carried out during his tenure.

Following the end of his term, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appointed Dr. Aminu Yusuf as the new chairman of the NPC for a five-year term, with expectations that the long-awaited census process will move forward under his leadership.

During a meeting with officials of the commission, President Tinubu assured them that the federal government would establish a committee to review the financial requirements of the census and align them with the country’s current economic realities. He also emphasized that the next census must incorporate modern biometric technologies, including facial and voice recognition, to improve accuracy and credibility.

The President further stressed that Nigeria should first evaluate its financial capacity before seeking support from development partners.

“We must understand our financial strength and determine what we can carry before engaging development partners for support,” Tinubu reportedly said.

The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, explained that the government has been working to coordinate multiple data and identity agencies to strengthen the census process. According to him, agencies such as the National Bureau of Statistics, National Identity Management Commission, and the National Space Research and Development Agency have been collaborating to integrate available national data resources.

Nigeria’s last national census was conducted in 2006, despite the United Nations’ recommendation that countries conduct population counts every ten years. Although the previous administration under Muhammadu Buhari planned to hold a census in 2023, the exercise was postponed due to funding constraints, logistical challenges, and the general elections held that year.

The absence of an updated census has left Nigeria without reliable population data. Estimates currently range between 200 million and 250 million, highlighting the lack of precise information about population size, growth rate, and demographic distribution.

Accurate census data are crucial for national planning, including the allocation of resources for schools, hospitals, infrastructure, and security services. In many developed countries, such planning relies heavily on population statistics.

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While financial constraints remain a challenge, some observers believe political sensitivities surrounding population figures may also contribute to the delay, as census outcomes often influence resource distribution and political representation.

Nevertheless, the federal government’s renewed commitment to conducting a census is seen as a positive step. Experts say that incorporating digital and biometric technologies, along with broader institutional collaboration, could help address credibility issues that affected previous exercises.

As preparations continue, Nigerians are being encouraged to support the process to ensure that the next census provides reliable data needed for effective national development planning.